Side Bet Analysis

If you have been paying attention, you know that Shawn and me have a side bet rolling about B1G futures. I’d like you jokers to offer thoughts on who will prevail in this side bet. Here are our plays:

Most Money Won Betting $500 in Big Ten Futures ($20)
Adam F. Plays:

Nebraska two win the Legends (+290)
Iowa under 5.5 wins (+120)
Michigan State over 8.5 wins (-115)
Nebraska over 9.5 wins (Even)
Northwestern under 8.5 wins (-200)

Shawn S. Plays:

OSU (-335) to win Division
Neb (+290) to win Division
Neb (even) over 9.5 wins
Rutgers (+115) over 7 wins
Michigan (even) over 8.5 wins

So we both take Nebraska to win the Legends and more than 9.5 games. Fucking homers. As I mention below, I’ve starting supping deeply from the Husker Punch Trough. So for Shawn and I, it comes down to the other three plays. Ohio State is a winner. It may have been a smart move on Shawn’s part to include a low risk/low reward play like that. I feel like I did the same thing with Northwestern under 8.5, but it’s slightly higher risk/reward. Assuming those both hit, I’m up about $20 so far. I admit I’m not very comfortable with Rutgers, so I don’t have much of a feel for how their season will play out. I’m going to assume that hits and my Iowa play hits (which I really think it will). That would put me up about $25 so far. Then it all comes down to our state of Michigan plays. If they both win, I’ll win by virtue of juice. So, as I see it playing out up until now, he’ll need to win and me to lose. Certainly possible. I’m not as sold on Michigan as a lot of people seem to be. I’m also much higher on Michigan State than most.

I wrote Bogus a long email about why I made the plays I did. Thinking they may spark conversation, I’ve posted my logic below. Shawn, if you want me to add the reasons for your plays, get at me with them and I’ll add them. My logic:

I really wanted to take Michigan State to win the Legends +300, but I’m starting to drink that Husker punch and I can’t help it. But if you look, Michigan State’s five B1G losses last year were by a combined 13 points. They definitely should have beaten us, they beat Ohio State, they beat Wisconsin fairly late. Teams that lose a ton of close games normally don’t do it twice in a row. But now I’m super excited about Husker time.

I honestly think the right play is either Michigan State or Nebraska, because Michigan has Ohio State, which neither Michigan State or Nebraska do. I also think Northwestern comes back down to earth a bit.  So I should probably just bet real money on Nebraska and Michigan State, right? Instead I will take Nebraska to win the Legends with my first pick.

Nebraska two win the Legends (+290)

For my second pick, I will take another + play. Iowa is fucking bad. I think they lose to Northern Illinois immediately. Wins on their schedule are Missouri State, Western Michigan (probably), and who? Minnesota, Iowa State, and Purdue are a toss-up. Even if they win two of those and beat Northern Illinois, they have to find a way to beat Michigan State, Ohio State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Nebraska. I just don’t see them winning 6. They have absolutely no momentum. They beat Michigan State and still only won 4 total games by losing six in a row (including Indiana and Purdue). They were over 100th in passing yards, rushing yards, and points for, and I see no reason that improves. So I will take Iowa under for my second bet.

Iowa under 5.5 wins (+120)

For the reasons mentioned above, I think Michigan State finds a way to win 9. Their QB play was garbage, and they lose Bell. Losing a running back doesn’t seem that devastating as most teams have guys they can plug in that are pretty close to whoever just left. If their QB play improves even a little, it will be huge. I’ll take Michigan State to win 9.

Michigan State over 8.5 wins (-115)

Man, I was going to stay away from Nebraska, but now I find myself wanting to pick them twice. I originally thought we’d lose to UCLA, Michigan, the one of Northwestern/Michigan State/Penn State. I no longer think that. Bo has to have UCLA circled, and we show up for those games. Even if our defense is young, they actually have speed. There’s no way they can do worse than last year, and that ended up being a close game. Home field gives us the edge. So we should be 7-0 coming into the Northwestern game, and I don’t see us overlooking those fucks. As I’ve said, I think people are too high on them. Iowa is an obvious win. Then we just need one win out of Michigan, Michigan State at home, and Penn State. I fucking think we might win 11. Honestly, I’m not that huge on Michigan. People are sucking Gardner’s nuts, but I don’t seem him being anything close to D Rob. Man, I hate how much I’ve turned the corner on thinking the Huskers are going to have a huge year. I absolutely know I’m wearing blinders now, but I don’t want to see past them. Fucking 12-0 son!

Nebraska over 9.5 wins (Even)

As I’ve said, I think Northwestern comes back to earth. People are so high on them, but they’re getting by on great coaching and solid execution. I don’t see them winning more than 8. They have 7 games they should win, but I think they’ll drop one of those. Going to Cal won’t be as easy as people think. Minnesota isn’t a gimme this year. But even if they win all 7 of those, they will have to win 2 against Ohio State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, and Michigan State. Maybe they get 1 and win all 7 gimmes, but I really doubt 2 and all 7.

Northwestern under 8.5 wins (-200)

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3 thoughts on “Side Bet Analysis

  1. Oh for cryin out loud. Will somebody please kickoff a fucking football game? I don’t care if it’s Liberty at Kent State at this point. Anything to get Feser to stop typing words. Did you type these little analyses for the Sporting News, professor?

    I took OSU b/c there’s no way in fuck they’re losing that shitbag division. -335 is, as you said, low risk/low reward.

    I took NU to win the Legends basically because at +290, I feel like it’s a low risk/high reward situation. They will win.

    I took NU at over 9.5 wins b/c frankly, I don’t wanna live in this state if we go 9-3 or worse.

    I took Rutgers because, why not? They play in the Colonial Athletic Conference of the New England Region, Subdivision III. I figure wins will be easy to come by there. Seriously didn’t even look at their schedule. There coach seems good, though. Point, Starostka.

    And finally, I took over Michigan 8.5 wins b/c I think they’ll take all 4 non-con games. That means they need to go 5-3 in conference play. Sure, why not?

    Love. Respect. Cornhuskers.

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